Google Ads Missed Its Earnings Number. Should Schools Still Invest?

Alphabet missed its earnings forecast this quarter, and advertising was part of the story. Read past the headline, though, and Google's ad revenue still grew roughly 12% year over year. Missing a forecast isn't the same as shrinking. In this episode of ROI University, Rustam Irani and Chris Sheppard dig into what the miss really signals, and whether colleges and universities should keep investing in Google Ads.

Is Google cannibalizing itself?

The concern isn't that search is going away. It's that Google may be competing with itself. AI Overviews and Gemini answer more questions right on the results page, and fewer of those answers carry ads. At the same time, ChatGPT and other LLMs aren't just taking a share of searches; they're launching their own ad products. There's talk of paid placements coming to AI Overviews and Gemini too, which would make those spaces pay-to-play.

Chris pointed out that Google already has a lot going on: Local Services Ads, standard search ads, the map pack, organic listings, and now AI Overviews. It's easy to get confused about where to show up. But in higher ed, paid search and SEO still produce some of the highest-quality leads available, because the prospect is actively looking for what you offer. What's shifting is the bottom of the funnel, where some low-intent, informational clicks are being absorbed by zero-click answers.

Traffic is down. Intent is up.

Rustam has a challenge for schools: if your website traffic hasn't dropped while your lead quality has gone up, he wants to hear from you. Nearly every institution is seeing fewer visits but stronger, higher-intent inquiries. Much of the lost traffic comes from aging content, like blog posts from 2018 or 2020 written before AI changed how students search and how programs are taught.

That points to one of the lowest-hanging SEO wins available right now. Find the articles and pages that performed well in the past, update them so they reflect today's programs and context, refresh the date, and republish. Keep the same URL so you hold on to the backlinks and authority it has built over the years. As Chris put it, most teams know they should do it. It just takes work, which is exactly why it pays off.

Google Ads is becoming the new Yellow Pages

Rustam returned to an idea Gary Vaynerchuk has raised and the team discussed with Charlie Parker last episode: Google Ads is turning into the Yellow Pages. It's still where high-intent people go, but the book is getting thicker. You don't need ten full-page ads. You need one in front of the right audience.

The bigger shift is everything around search. The old rule of thumb was that a high-ticket decision took 12 to 14 brand touchpoints. Estimates Rustam has heard lately run closer to 17 to 22. Whatever the exact number, it's climbing, which means your brand has to show up on social, connected TV, Reddit, Quora, and beyond. Digital PR is making a comeback for the same reason. Chris saw it work at a previous institution, where a strong PR team earned backlinks from news outlets and publications while putting the school in front of its audience again and again.

Track everything down to enrollment

The best thing about Google Ads has always been that you can tie spend directly to results. That advantage only exists if you use it. Track performance at the campaign, ad group, and ad level, connect it to your CRM, and measure cost per start or cost per enrollment by campus and program, not just cost per lead. Without that, you can't optimize, and efficiency isn't getting any easier.

Schools that already track everything have likely reached an equilibrium where each extra enrollment costs more. For them, the opportunity is expanding carefully, through broader targeting or new channels, while attributing the impact those channels have on the overall marketing mix.

Don't trust the easy button

Google keeps pitching tools like Performance Max and AI Max as making advertising easier. They're useful, but Chris was clear: you still have to know your audience and build campaigns around them. It isn't as simple as clicking a button.

Rustam also warned about snake oil. Every major tech shift brings it. From about 2007 to 2014, every conference he attended declared it "the year of mobile." Now it's the year of AI. Uncertainty makes it easy to sell shortcuts, and even people working in this every day are still learning what these tools can and can't do.

When RGI audits Google Ads accounts, the biggest gaps are usually fundamentals: campaign structure, ad group setup, and geotargeting. For national and online programs, certain states pull far more inquiries than others. California is often a top state, even for schools based in New York.

The takeaway

Keep going with Google Ads, but only if it's set up properly. Doubling down makes sense when your tracking, processes, and systems are in place and there's still room to grow. Otherwise, you can waste a lot of money fast. And once you hit the ceiling, look at the whole ecosystem: ChatGPT ads, TikTok, Snapchat, and how you engage the community you already have, including alumni. Google Ads is one piece of the student journey. At the center of it all is the hero of the story, the student. Keep them in focus and build everything around them.